Analysis on Elections 2013

Finally the awaited day is almost here, the countdown has started for the General Elections 2013. All the political pundits are coming with their forecast and projecting election result all over Pakistan. But none of them have gone in depth of the elections result of Baluchistan and the day of election May 11th.
May 11 the Election Day is a make or a break day for Baluchistan. The situation in Baluchistan is totally different from rest of Pakistan, there are forces who have called for election boycott and quite formidable to impose their will on the people by force. They are the forces which are known as separatism or in the local language as Sarmachar (the one who are ready to die). They have their presence in the most Baluch dominated areas of Baluchistan and to materialize their threat, 72 hours of wheel jam has already been started which will finish at midnight 11 May. Life is at standstill in most of the part of Baluch areas (Mastung, Kalat, Noshki, Awaran, Khuzdar, Panjgur, Turbat, Gawadar, and Kech). 80% of Baluchistan is without electricity as militants has blown up, two transmission lines near Bakhtiyarabad and the work on the repair has not been yet started due to security clearance to QESCO workers.  There were many attacks on the houses, rallies, offices and on the candidates directly who are participating in the elections, one of the candidate [Abdul Fateh Magsi] contesting election from PB-32 was shot dead as well. There was a attack on the convoy of PML (N) chief Nawab Sanaullah Zehri which resulted in the dead of his son, younger brother and nephew and he narrowly escaped the dead himself. They have also targeted designated polling stations and have threaten to kill anyone who will perform polling days duties,
On the other side we have the nationalist parties along with main stream parties who are taking part in the elections and are quite determined to bring out their voters from the home. The Pashtun areas of Baluchistan are quite peaceful and a tough contest is expected between PKMAP and JUIF. An early report indicates a slight edge on PKMAP over JUIF and ANP is trying to save its two seats from Harni and Qila Abdullah. PML (Q) can win couple of seats from Dhuki and Zhob and one from Dhadar as well.  In the Baluch areas BNPM and National party will secure most of the seats along with independent. The PML (N) has chances from Naseerabad, Jafferabad and one seat from Khuzdar. The Peoples Party can win couple of seats from its traditional strong hold of Naseerabad and Lasbela. Sardar Umer Gorgage has best of the chance to win a national assembly seat from Quetta, Chaghi. PTI has no chance of even getting a third position from any constituency because their leadership completely ignored Baluch dominated areas, even Pashtuns and just a formal few hours visit of Imran Khan was arranged at Loralai and Sibi.
One thing is certain that no party will gain majority in Baluchistan, but most probably the nationalist parties will be at lead this time but still no one knows what will happen on May 11th as nothing is certain except one thing whichever party/candidate will be able to bring its voter to the polling stations will win.

Security is the key to Balochistan elections

Less than 40 days are left to the general elections and electioneering is in full swing everywhere, except for Balochistan, where militant groups have announced the boycott of elections and have even threatened consequences for the participants. To make their threat realistic, they killed District Election Officer Ziaullah Qasmi in broad daylight in Quetta.
As a measure of security, all staff of the election commission has been prohibited from using cell phones. To address these issues, Chief Election Commissioner, Justice (R) Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim visited Quetta last week. He met with all the political stakeholders in Balochistan and was conveyed the reservations of the major political parties of the province. He advised them not to include any controversial figure in the caretaker cabinet as it would harm the credibility of caretaker setup and the forthcoming elections.
After the visit of Chief Election Commissioner, a high level meeting was held to access the security arrangement before and during the elections presided over by the Inspector-General of Frontier Constabulary, Major-General Ubaidullah Khan Khattak. A comprehensive security plan was devised for the elections. The Balochistan provisional caretaker cabinet has not yet been finalised as the caretaker CM wants to follow the Chief Election Commissioner’s advice by not inducting any controversial figure in it. After his visit, the momentum of the elections has all of a sudden gathered pace and more enthusiasm is visible, which was not there earlier.
The Baloch dominated areas are still in a grip of fear from threats from religious militants, especially the districts of Panjgur, Turbat, Gawadur, Awarana, Kalat and Khuzdar. But despite everything, the arrival of Sardar Akhthar Mengal and his announcement that his party (BNP Mengal) will actively participate in the elections, has changed the scenario. Now it is hoped that momentum will be generated as all the major nationalist parties (BNP [A], National Party, PKMAP) along with BNP Mengal are now participating in the elections.
Most analysts say that the elections will put Pakistan once again on the “crossroads” which is especially true for Balochistan. The militant groups hold that all those participating in the elections will help strengthen the state machinery of Pakistan against whom they are waging the war of independence, whereas nationalist parties believe in a political struggle. If the government does not take appropriate steps for maintaining law and order during electioneering it might cause more bloodshed to the already blood-stained province which was once known for its peace and harmony.
Balochistan’s politics has always been dominated by the JUI-F and nationalist parties. After every election, the JUI-F is part of a coalition government with different parties and this time once again they are likely to do the same. They have been partners with the dictators as well as with champions of democracy. Meanwhile, nationalist parties are flexing their muscles to win a maximum number of seats, despite the fact that there are talks going on that there will be seat adjustments. PML (N) is also in touch with the nationalist parties for possible election alliances. PML (Q) is taking a solo flight with some seat adjustment with the locals, relying on the electable candidates who can win on their own.
The PPP became the ruling party in 2008, despite winning fewer seats than PML (Q).There was virtually no opposition at the beginning of the tenure, even though in the end there were more opposition members than ruling benches. So much so, that the Balochistan High Court had to settle the issue of the opposition leader when the speaker (who belongs to JUI-F) declared a senior minister, Maulana Wasay, as the opposition leader a day prior to the completion of the term of government.
This was done deliberately to aid the JUI-F in choosing a caretaker chief minister, but things were settled in the Balochistan High Court. Although the PPP chief minister, Nawab Aslam Raisani, was at the helm of provincial affairs he never associated himself with the PPP which harmed the party interest in the province. Instead, he spent most of his time outside Balochistan and gave a free hand to all his ministers who spent billions of Rupees in the name of development without benefitting a single area, including the provincial capital. This has seriously lowered the chances of the PPP winning many seats in Balochistan.
Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) is entering this election as a dark horse with slogans of change but according to the traditional pundits, Naya Pakistan has very little chance of winning a single seat. It is even doubted whether their candidates can cross the four-digit number in terms of votes. The PTI’s intra-party elections were marred by the allegations of rigging and selections, not elections and there is not a single notable leader in the provincial chapter of PTI. It seems as if Imran Khan has given up any hope of winning any seats from here, since he has not been campaigning in Balochistan. His visits are only confined to Quetta which usually attracts a specific community.
He is vocal about US drone strikes but never mentions militancy in Balochistan, which is one of the major problems of the province. It seems as if he has failed to understand the political dynamics of Balochistan. His party could have won a significant number of votes in the Pashtun areas of Balochistan, but he did not build on this potential. Even though the PTI was a part of the All Pakistan Democratic Alliance Movement (APDAM) along with other nationalist parties of Balochistan, and boycotted the elections in 2008, he could not materialise an electoral alliance with them. If the PTI wants to put up a good show he has to re-align his position in Balochistan.
Elections are likely to decide the fate of not only the political parties but will also be a verdict of the people’s choice in favour of nationalism or sub-nationalism. But this depends on whether the security can be improved for a sizeable voter turnout.


This blog was published in The Spokesman Pakistan (April 6th, 2013)

United we stand, divided we die !!!

Monday, January 14, 2013

He came running to his mom with his red nose and cheeks, shivering due to the severe cold and asked, “Amma, it’s so cold here let’s take Abba and Chacha home.” She hugged him tight and screamed aloud, “Ya Allah Madad,”
Thousands of protestors have been enduring chilly weather in Quetta to protest over killing of humanity in twin suicide attack on Alamdar road area of the city. In sub-zero temperature, women and children continued into its third day as talks between the government and the Hazara community failed to reach a settlement. They are still refusing to bury what’s left from the blast until the army takes control of the provincial capital.
After almost 25 hours of a continuing sit-in by thousands of Hazara Shia community finally the government thought to take notice of these poor people, who have lost almost everything in this inhumane act, by sending the senior leaders of Pakistan federal and Balochistan government to Alamdar road.
Earlier during the day, Pakistan-Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan along with the party’s senior leader Makhdoom Javed Hashmi reached Quetta’s Alamdar road to express solidarity with the protestors staging a sit-in against Thursday’s bloodbath.
The mourners have brought 86 bodies of victims of Alamdar road blast and blocked the road connecting main government office with Quetta city.  Syed Dawood Agha, the Chief of Baluchistan Shia Conference said that the provincial government and police had completely failed to provide protection to them. “We will continue our sit-in until Quetta is handed over to Army,” said Agha.
Key Shia leader Maulana Amin Shaheedi criticised General Kayani and said: “I ask the army chief: ‘What have you done with these extra three years you got in office? What did you give us except more death?’”
The citizens especially the youth of Quetta are really disappointed by this attitude of government towards this peaceful protest. What worse could have had happen to these people, who don’t even have the body of their beloved to cry over?
One of the protesters said, “When one day they will kill us too then why not today? At least we all are together and ready for the death.” Another lady was holding a pair of shoe and said, “This is what is left for me out of my 21 year old son, who was a good snooker player and wanted to represent Pakistan on international,” weeping off her tears she further added, “Pakistan … not Shia community!”
Many people have started another protest on social media by updating their status with: “I am a Hazara,” and changing their profile picture to black for the black day of Quetta.
After my last blog few people criticize me for not writing about all those incidents that happened in past with other sects. My answer to them is that if I didn’t OTHER did and what was the result? Nothing!
This is the problem with our generation that we don’t understand the power of unity. If we see few people united over one thing instead of being a part of them, we will start criticizing them. Just to make my point more valid I would quote two recent incidents, one Malala Yousafzai and other Shahzeb Khan.
Why can’t we take things positively and be a part of the change and work out over it rather than finding out ways to divert them from the matter of subject.
My country had enough, especially my city, now it’s the time to speak up and stand for ourselves before we all drown in this bleeding city.
This country has lost his glory and the citizens have lost their faith on government but they still have their faith on the Ultimate Power, who will give justice to them.

Baluchistan remains disconnected through the rest of the country on the 65th Independence Day of Pakistan

August 14, 2012

65 years back on the same day and the same holy month of Ramadan we got our independence from the British Raj. The State of Pakistan came into being and all the Pakistanis were happy to be the citizens of an independent country. Though many could not express their happiness on this auspicious day because they have lost their families, land and loved ones in the communal riots.
Today, after 65 years here I am in my room and recalling the past, and the speech of Mohammad Ali Jinnah echoes in my mind that he delivered to the first Constituent Assembly on August 11, 1947, at Karachi upon being elected as its first president:
“You are free; you are free to go to your temples, you are free to go to your mosques or to any other place of worship in this State of Pakistan. You may belong to any religion or caste or creed — that has nothing to do with the business of the State... We are starting with this fundamental principle that we are all citizens and equal citizens of one State... I think we should keep that in front of us as our ideal and you will find that in due course Hindus would cease to be Hindus and Muslims would cease to be Muslims, not in the religious sense, because that is the personal faith of each individual, but in the political sense as citizens of the State.”
I wonder do any of us exactly understand what principles the founding father of Pakistan laid for us. No, I don’t think so, because, we might be an independent state but sovereignty is a myth for us. We are still not a free nation in the real sense of term. A nation means, “A large aggregate of people united by common descent, history, culture, or language, inhabiting a particular country or territory.” Though we have a common territory and a common history inherent, a common political struggle for the making of this country but we still lack the cohesiveness of a nation. We have forgotten the basis of her creation as federation of five sub-nations; Bengalis, Punjabis, Pashtoons, Sindhis and Baluchs. A unitary system was imposed upon Pakistan in 1954, by creating the One Unit of West Pakistan viz-a-via East Pakistan and parity between the two wings which resulted in the segregation of East Pakistan (E Bengal) in 1971. Even today the same system is being imposed against the wishes of the three minorities provinces; Sindh, Khyber Paktoon Khawa and Baluchistan. The Baluch are badly affected by this discriminately treatment till day.
Today the discriminated Baluch realize that they are living in an occupied territory, as the Independence Day here is not treated as the day of rejoice and celebration. On the day of independence all the mobile services have been cut off by the central government with the result that no one within Baluchistan and outside Baluchistan can contact through text messages and phone calls. Initially, internet service was also suspended so I could not dispatch this file earlier.
While writing this blog, I missed my school days when I would desperately wait for August 14 as we had celebrations and fun-fairs but now we have fear and only fear in our hearts,  agitation in our minds,  dread in our schools,  terror in our mosques and temples as, we have lost the soul, as a nation, by suppressing the basic principles on which, the state was created and have demolished the pillars that the founding father laid to build a state for all creeds, a home for everyone and a tolerant society for all, whether they were Muslims, Hindus or Christians.

Shireen Gul
Quetta, Baluchistan (Pakistan)