Less than 40 days are left to the general elections and electioneering is in full swing everywhere, except for Balochistan, where militant groups have announced the boycott of elections and have even threatened consequences for the participants. To make their threat realistic, they killed District Election Officer Ziaullah Qasmi in broad daylight in Quetta.
As a measure of security, all staff of the election commission has been prohibited from using cell phones. To address these issues, Chief Election Commissioner, Justice (R) Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim visited Quetta last week. He met with all the political stakeholders in Balochistan and was conveyed the reservations of the major political parties of the province. He advised them not to include any controversial figure in the caretaker cabinet as it would harm the credibility of caretaker setup and the forthcoming elections.
After the visit of Chief Election Commissioner, a high level meeting was held to access the security arrangement before and during the elections presided over by the Inspector-General of Frontier Constabulary, Major-General Ubaidullah Khan Khattak. A comprehensive security plan was devised for the elections. The Balochistan provisional caretaker cabinet has not yet been finalised as the caretaker CM wants to follow the Chief Election Commissioner’s advice by not inducting any controversial figure in it. After his visit, the momentum of the elections has all of a sudden gathered pace and more enthusiasm is visible, which was not there earlier.
The Baloch dominated areas are still in a grip of fear from threats from religious militants, especially the districts of Panjgur, Turbat, Gawadur, Awarana, Kalat and Khuzdar. But despite everything, the arrival of Sardar Akhthar Mengal and his announcement that his party (BNP Mengal) will actively participate in the elections, has changed the scenario. Now it is hoped that momentum will be generated as all the major nationalist parties (BNP [A], National Party, PKMAP) along with BNP Mengal are now participating in the elections.
Most analysts say that the elections will put Pakistan once again on the “crossroads” which is especially true for Balochistan. The militant groups hold that all those participating in the elections will help strengthen the state machinery of Pakistan against whom they are waging the war of independence, whereas nationalist parties believe in a political struggle. If the government does not take appropriate steps for maintaining law and order during electioneering it might cause more bloodshed to the already blood-stained province which was once known for its peace and harmony.
Balochistan’s politics has always been dominated by the JUI-F and nationalist parties. After every election, the JUI-F is part of a coalition government with different parties and this time once again they are likely to do the same. They have been partners with the dictators as well as with champions of democracy. Meanwhile, nationalist parties are flexing their muscles to win a maximum number of seats, despite the fact that there are talks going on that there will be seat adjustments. PML (N) is also in touch with the nationalist parties for possible election alliances. PML (Q) is taking a solo flight with some seat adjustment with the locals, relying on the electable candidates who can win on their own.
The PPP became the ruling party in 2008, despite winning fewer seats than PML (Q).There was virtually no opposition at the beginning of the tenure, even though in the end there were more opposition members than ruling benches. So much so, that the Balochistan High Court had to settle the issue of the opposition leader when the speaker (who belongs to JUI-F) declared a senior minister, Maulana Wasay, as the opposition leader a day prior to the completion of the term of government.
This was done deliberately to aid the JUI-F in choosing a caretaker chief minister, but things were settled in the Balochistan High Court. Although the PPP chief minister, Nawab Aslam Raisani, was at the helm of provincial affairs he never associated himself with the PPP which harmed the party interest in the province. Instead, he spent most of his time outside Balochistan and gave a free hand to all his ministers who spent billions of Rupees in the name of development without benefitting a single area, including the provincial capital. This has seriously lowered the chances of the PPP winning many seats in Balochistan.
Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) is entering this election as a dark horse with slogans of change but according to the traditional pundits, Naya Pakistan has very little chance of winning a single seat. It is even doubted whether their candidates can cross the four-digit number in terms of votes. The PTI’s intra-party elections were marred by the allegations of rigging and selections, not elections and there is not a single notable leader in the provincial chapter of PTI. It seems as if Imran Khan has given up any hope of winning any seats from here, since he has not been campaigning in Balochistan. His visits are only confined to Quetta which usually attracts a specific community.
He is vocal about US drone strikes but never mentions militancy in Balochistan, which is one of the major problems of the province. It seems as if he has failed to understand the political dynamics of Balochistan. His party could have won a significant number of votes in the Pashtun areas of Balochistan, but he did not build on this potential. Even though the PTI was a part of the All Pakistan Democratic Alliance Movement (APDAM) along with other nationalist parties of Balochistan, and boycotted the elections in 2008, he could not materialise an electoral alliance with them. If the PTI wants to put up a good show he has to re-align his position in Balochistan.
Elections are likely to decide the fate of not only the political parties but will also be a verdict of the people’s choice in favour of nationalism or sub-nationalism. But this depends on whether the security can be improved for a sizeable voter turnout.
This blog was published in The Spokesman Pakistan (April 6th, 2013)
No comments:
Post a Comment