Analysis on Elections 2013

Finally the awaited day is almost here, the countdown has started for the General Elections 2013. All the political pundits are coming with their forecast and projecting election result all over Pakistan. But none of them have gone in depth of the elections result of Baluchistan and the day of election May 11th.
May 11 the Election Day is a make or a break day for Baluchistan. The situation in Baluchistan is totally different from rest of Pakistan, there are forces who have called for election boycott and quite formidable to impose their will on the people by force. They are the forces which are known as separatism or in the local language as Sarmachar (the one who are ready to die). They have their presence in the most Baluch dominated areas of Baluchistan and to materialize their threat, 72 hours of wheel jam has already been started which will finish at midnight 11 May. Life is at standstill in most of the part of Baluch areas (Mastung, Kalat, Noshki, Awaran, Khuzdar, Panjgur, Turbat, Gawadar, and Kech). 80% of Baluchistan is without electricity as militants has blown up, two transmission lines near Bakhtiyarabad and the work on the repair has not been yet started due to security clearance to QESCO workers.  There were many attacks on the houses, rallies, offices and on the candidates directly who are participating in the elections, one of the candidate [Abdul Fateh Magsi] contesting election from PB-32 was shot dead as well. There was a attack on the convoy of PML (N) chief Nawab Sanaullah Zehri which resulted in the dead of his son, younger brother and nephew and he narrowly escaped the dead himself. They have also targeted designated polling stations and have threaten to kill anyone who will perform polling days duties,
On the other side we have the nationalist parties along with main stream parties who are taking part in the elections and are quite determined to bring out their voters from the home. The Pashtun areas of Baluchistan are quite peaceful and a tough contest is expected between PKMAP and JUIF. An early report indicates a slight edge on PKMAP over JUIF and ANP is trying to save its two seats from Harni and Qila Abdullah. PML (Q) can win couple of seats from Dhuki and Zhob and one from Dhadar as well.  In the Baluch areas BNPM and National party will secure most of the seats along with independent. The PML (N) has chances from Naseerabad, Jafferabad and one seat from Khuzdar. The Peoples Party can win couple of seats from its traditional strong hold of Naseerabad and Lasbela. Sardar Umer Gorgage has best of the chance to win a national assembly seat from Quetta, Chaghi. PTI has no chance of even getting a third position from any constituency because their leadership completely ignored Baluch dominated areas, even Pashtuns and just a formal few hours visit of Imran Khan was arranged at Loralai and Sibi.
One thing is certain that no party will gain majority in Baluchistan, but most probably the nationalist parties will be at lead this time but still no one knows what will happen on May 11th as nothing is certain except one thing whichever party/candidate will be able to bring its voter to the polling stations will win.